A dive into GroupM’s volumunious 2008 Worldwide Media and Marketing Forecasts yields plenty of interesting numbers for data junkies, not least regarding internet advertising (broadly defined as search, display and directory) spend across Asia, expected in 2008 to grow to the tune of:

- Singapore - 62%
- India - 60%
- China - 55%
- Australia: 40%
- Thailand - 28%
- Hong Kong - 25%
- Taiwan - 20%
- Japan - 20%
- Indonesia - 13%
- S. Korea - 8%

Aside from the massive disparity in internet advertising growth levels across the region, some interesting themes emerge:

First, while increases in internet advertising are expected to be very strong in China and India, they will account for less than 6% and 2.5% of media spend respectively, pointing to fairly conventional marketing cultures, despite considerable web 2.0 froth in China.

Second, the deceleration of internet spend in Singapore, Japan and S. Korea. According to the report, internet spend in Singapore has been growing at over 100% for the past two years, but is working from a low base and still only accounts for approx. 3.5% of media spend, so continued investment in this area seems likely given the relative maturity of the market and the potential returns of online marketing.

But what’s going on in Japan and S. Korea, held up as two of the most technologically advanced nations?

One explanation is that search marketing is not having the impact it is having in other countries due to the dominance of display ad heavyweights Yahoo! in Japan and Naver in S. Korea, although search marketing has been growing strongly in S. Korea in the last couple of years, led by Naver (disclosure: a B-M client).

Another reason is almost certainly the popularity of social networks and social media sites in these markets - digital nuts that advertisers and ad networks (including Google AdSense) have yet successfully to crack.

And this is despite both markets being buttressed by healthy investments in mobile marketing (see also Dentsu’s take on internet advertising prospects, with mobile advertising and mobile search advertising split out).

Third, while we might expect to see stronger online growth in more ‘traditional’ media markets such as Indonesia and Thailand, internet marketing is expected to account for no more than 1.5% of media spend in either market (cf. internet advertising in the most ‘advanced’ markets - Sweden and the UK - already weighs in at 25%+ of total media share).

However, the report does not include non-’measured’ media such as website and online community development, content development (a fair amount of which is promotional in nature - think downloads for mobile phones etc), online gaming, word-of-mouth, conversational and email marketing - areas of significant investment especially in China and N. Asia given the popularity of social media, networks and online communities.

Were it to, we might be looking at an even more encouraging set of forecasts (from a digital perspective), and further food for thought for organisations as they execute their marketing plans this year.

Two recent surveys highlight the state and nature of internet usage in mainland China:

The first, from CNNIC (aka the official China Internet Network Information Centre)’s ‘Survey Report on Blogs in China 2007′ (eng summary), reports that China now boasts some 47m bloggers, or one quarter of internet users in the country. Of these, a remarkable 36% can be classified as active bloggers. Interestingly, female  bloggers out-strip males by 57% to 43%.

The second (press release), by fellow WPP agency JWT, digs deeper into quite why China’s youth are taking to living their lives online with such relish (in contrast to young Americans, who are significantly less enthusiastic). The reasons given are not new, but are worth repeating:

 - in a environment where freedom of speech remains tightly controlled, the internet provides access to a range of information and opinion they would otherwise stuggle to find

- beyond this, China’s relatively (at least, relative to its mainstream media) unregulated internet and ability to post anonymously allows the Chinese to express themselves and gain a voice in ways they would not and can not in their offline lives

- the internet enables people with a personal and public outlet to discover themselves, develop their self-identity and experiment with different identities.

- in a highly structured society, online communities, games and other channels makes it easy to meet and build relationships with others with similar interests.

Fortunately for the authorities, the great majority of time online is spent on entertainment-related activities - celebrities, music, fashion are all the rage. In contrast to western style blogging, often done for personal brand-building purposes, bloggers in China restrict their output to records of personal thoughts and for their own pleasure - very rarely do you meet Chinese who promote their blogs, even to their friends.

Yet, the stirrings of a more activist citizenry are emerging. Last year witnessed a mobile-phone based campaign against the building of a new chemical plant in Xiamen via mobile phone and Zola Zhou’s well-publicised (online) lone battle against the destruction of the Chongqing ‘nail house’.

Like most surveys in China, the surveys require qualification: China’s internet population remains highly skewed to the top tier urban centres as the internet has not yet hit the country’s massive rural base (indeed, internet penetration remains limited to c.12% of China’s population - CNNIC).

But when it does, the social and cultural implications may well be startling.

A newly published study argues that blogs are playing a big role in shaping foreign journalists’ coverage of China. Thanks to Will Moss for the tip.

According to the report’s author, Rebecca Mckinnon, blogs are especially important to China hacks as the China ’story’ is not dictated by any one dominant issue, but rather requires detailed understanding across a range of themes, each of which demand specialist insight and where information and where on the record quotes, formal or informal, can be tricky to gather.

MacKinnon, a former CNN bureau chief in China, further notes that blogs are now a standard part of most journalists’ regular reading on the country with some 90% , but that they are evaluated individually according to the author’s track record and reputation.

Two blogs that score particularly highly are EastSouthWestNorth by Hong Kong-based researcher Roland Soong and Danwei from Beijing-based consultant Jeremy Goldkorn. Both set out to shed light on China, collating, (sometimes) translating and analysing latest developments in Chinese news and media and technology respectively.

Unsurprisingly, blogs emerge as the favoured online source for emerging stories, analysis and expert opinion, reflecting the fact that blogging outside of social networks has taken on a role similar to that in the west ie. a platform for personal opinion and professional advancement (if not, yet, for company communication), though in China’s case, it has also been subject to some well-documented nationalistic flag-waving (eg. Starbucks in the Forbidden City).

Meantime, discussion boards, which remain highly popular perhaps in part thanks to their anonymity, in part due to the sheer range of topics and numbers of participants, are considered useful for guaging public opinion.

With more of China’s 140m+ internet users going to the net for news and information (source: CNNIC 2007 Statistical Report - pdf) than receiving it on TV or print, organisations doing business in China would do well to keep an eye on the internet as a whole ie. both blogs and boards - for the latter are usually the source of stories about products, the former where these stories are shaped and promoted.

Last weekend Hong Kong celebrated 10 years of freedom. Chinese President Hu Jintao made an appearance, a speech and played some ping-pong. Meantime, demonstrators and the foreign media called for democracy.

Outside the mainstream media, cursory analysis of the blogosphere appears to show comparatively little interest (for which read enthusiasm?) in the celebrations.

From a technology perspective, this might seem surprising - Hong Kong has amongst the highest broadband and mobile phone penetration levels in the world. It boasts a free press and no discernable government online intervention. Yet, unlike across the border in China, in Hong Kong, a vigorous indigenous online culture appears not to have taken root.

Blogging, for instance, while popular on social networks such as Xanga, is limited to writing diaries and uploading photos. Political blogs or citizen journalism are almost non-existent (with the exception of the ongoing campaign against the demolition of the Star Ferry’s Queen’s Pier terminal in HK harbour, where online pressure groups have used the internet to mobilise opinion).

A saturated media environment may be one reason for the apparent lack of interest in digital communication. More fundamential may be the local custom of frequently visiting families and friends, easy to do in a small area. The latter may also help explain why businesses in HK pay little attention to online marketing - being around the corner, they are confident that locals will visit in person.

What then are the marketing opportunities?

Relevant, timely location-based mobile marketing may be one answer. Providing content in formats that are sufficiently brief and easily portable may be another, as the South China Morning Post has discovered through the success of its SCMP Today podcasts.

If you believe the international business press, you could be forgiven for thinking that there’s only one search engine game in town - Google. Internet portals such as Yahoo! and MSN are billed as mere also-rans.

Looked at from an Asian perspective, things look different. For while Google has solidified its lead in most English-language markets (in India it has a 70% share of the search market, and it tops traffic rankings in Australia and Singapore), in others it has its work cut out.

Yahoo! is used by almost 80% of Japanese internet users every month, with 65% using its search engine, and also leads in Hong Kong. China’s Baidu accounts for 60%+ of search marketing expenditure while in South Korea Naver attracts some 70% of search dollars.

Like Yahoo!, Baidu and Naver offer a host of community activities in addition to web search, including blogging and discussion boards. Naver’s killer app is its Knowledge iN search engine (think Yahoo! Answers); with over 60m questions submitted, it has help fill a glaring hole on the Korean internet - a dearth of local language content. Naver now has over 26m registered users, and over 50%+ of South Koreans have set Naver.com as their default homepage.

In China, MP3 search accounts for over 20% of Baidu’s traffic. Other popular services include Baidu Zhidao, its social search tool, and Baidu Baike, a local language wiki encyclopedia, which now boasts nearly 750,000 entries. Baidu’s success comes despite Google’s Chinese language search capability being considered the superior and Adwords the more effective marketing system.

The lesson? That technology by itself won’t deliver the users (and the consequent marketing money) and that it pays to understand the needs of local users, for whom communication and networking are key activities online.

In east Asia, a search offering with a significant community component works best. The portal is alive and kicking.