A dive into GroupM’s volumunious 2008 Worldwide Media and Marketing Forecasts yields plenty of interesting numbers for data junkies, not least regarding internet advertising (broadly defined as search, display and directory) spend across Asia, expected in 2008 to grow to the tune of:

- Singapore - 62%
- India - 60%
- China - 55%
- Australia: 40%
- Thailand - 28%
- Hong Kong - 25%
- Taiwan - 20%
- Japan - 20%
- Indonesia - 13%
- S. Korea - 8%

Aside from the massive disparity in internet advertising growth levels across the region, some interesting themes emerge:

First, while increases in internet advertising are expected to be very strong in China and India, they will account for less than 6% and 2.5% of media spend respectively, pointing to fairly conventional marketing cultures, despite considerable web 2.0 froth in China.

Second, the deceleration of internet spend in Singapore, Japan and S. Korea. According to the report, internet spend in Singapore has been growing at over 100% for the past two years, but is working from a low base and still only accounts for approx. 3.5% of media spend, so continued investment in this area seems likely given the relative maturity of the market and the potential returns of online marketing.

But what’s going on in Japan and S. Korea, held up as two of the most technologically advanced nations?

One explanation is that search marketing is not having the impact it is having in other countries due to the dominance of display ad heavyweights Yahoo! in Japan and Naver in S. Korea, although search marketing has been growing strongly in S. Korea in the last couple of years, led by Naver (disclosure: a B-M client).

Another reason is almost certainly the popularity of social networks and social media sites in these markets - digital nuts that advertisers and ad networks (including Google AdSense) have yet successfully to crack.

And this is despite both markets being buttressed by healthy investments in mobile marketing (see also Dentsu’s take on internet advertising prospects, with mobile advertising and mobile search advertising split out).

Third, while we might expect to see stronger online growth in more ‘traditional’ media markets such as Indonesia and Thailand, internet marketing is expected to account for no more than 1.5% of media spend in either market (cf. internet advertising in the most ‘advanced’ markets - Sweden and the UK - already weighs in at 25%+ of total media share).

However, the report does not include non-’measured’ media such as website and online community development, content development (a fair amount of which is promotional in nature - think downloads for mobile phones etc), online gaming, word-of-mouth, conversational and email marketing - areas of significant investment especially in China and N. Asia given the popularity of social media, networks and online communities.

Were it to, we might be looking at an even more encouraging set of forecasts (from a digital perspective), and further food for thought for organisations as they execute their marketing plans this year.

Two recent surveys highlight the state and nature of internet usage in mainland China:

The first, from CNNIC (aka the official China Internet Network Information Centre)’s ‘Survey Report on Blogs in China 2007′ (eng summary), reports that China now boasts some 47m bloggers, or one quarter of internet users in the country. Of these, a remarkable 36% can be classified as active bloggers. Interestingly, female  bloggers out-strip males by 57% to 43%.

The second (press release), by fellow WPP agency JWT, digs deeper into quite why China’s youth are taking to living their lives online with such relish (in contrast to young Americans, who are significantly less enthusiastic). The reasons given are not new, but are worth repeating:

 - in a environment where freedom of speech remains tightly controlled, the internet provides access to a range of information and opinion they would otherwise stuggle to find

- beyond this, China’s relatively (at least, relative to its mainstream media) unregulated internet and ability to post anonymously allows the Chinese to express themselves and gain a voice in ways they would not and can not in their offline lives

- the internet enables people with a personal and public outlet to discover themselves, develop their self-identity and experiment with different identities.

- in a highly structured society, online communities, games and other channels makes it easy to meet and build relationships with others with similar interests.

Fortunately for the authorities, the great majority of time online is spent on entertainment-related activities - celebrities, music, fashion are all the rage. In contrast to western style blogging, often done for personal brand-building purposes, bloggers in China restrict their output to records of personal thoughts and for their own pleasure - very rarely do you meet Chinese who promote their blogs, even to their friends.

Yet, the stirrings of a more activist citizenry are emerging. Last year witnessed a mobile-phone based campaign against the building of a new chemical plant in Xiamen via mobile phone and Zola Zhou’s well-publicised (online) lone battle against the destruction of the Chongqing ‘nail house’.

Like most surveys in China, the surveys require qualification: China’s internet population remains highly skewed to the top tier urban centres as the internet has not yet hit the country’s massive rural base (indeed, internet penetration remains limited to c.12% of China’s population - CNNIC).

But when it does, the social and cultural implications may well be startling.

B-M has released a new survey indicating that ‘e-fluentials’ (active and involved individuals who make up around 15% of internet users) in the US are increasingly concerned that hired third parties are leaving biased opinions on consumer web sites.

As opinion leaders, e-fluentials shape many others’ perceptions of brands and products, so their concerns over diminishing trust in the online environment might be considered a harbinger of things to come.

On the surface, such a theory goes against the grain of received wisdom - after all, the internet is super-charging world-of-mouth, that most trusted and impactful of all forms of communication according to multiple surveys (see here, for example), and online consumer opinions are regularly rated as more reliable than other types of marketing, notably advertising of almost any description.

A combination of factors may be eroding this trust, from the open access models adopted by MySpace and other social networks that have made them manna to paedophiles to knowledge that marketers are pulling all sorts of tricks to gain people’s attention, some of them below the belt.

Yet, according to a recent Nielsen survey, this scepticism has yet to reach Asia, with users in seven Asian markets most likely to trust recommendations from consumers, notably Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, South Korea and the Philippines.

The study also suggests that Asians (especially South Koreans and Taiwanese) also place a high level of trust on consumer-generated content such as blogs - despite the persistant popularity of bulletin boards, where users are often anonymous and which account for higher levels of traffic than blogs.

One reason for this may be Asians’ respect for authority, a common cultural trait across the region, another could be distrust of print and broadcast media in many markets, which is seen as little more than government propaganda.

Yet another might be the comparatively high levels of security and privacy provided by homegrown social networks such as Cyworld and Mixi, where users can communicate safe in the knowledge that they won’t be pestered by unwanted intruders.

All the more reason for high levels of transparency and authenticity when planning online PR and word of mouth programs in the region.

From a social media perspective, the last few days have proved an interesting time to be in Australia.

Most visibly, the Prime Minister’s Office and a host of goverment departments have been exposed as having their fingers all over Wikipedia. While the great majority of the edits are trivial, and some just plain silly, others appear to show staffers editing entries/stories potentially damaging to the government. And the Department of Defence has made over 5000 amends, including to pages on the 9/11 Truth Movement, among others.

Needlesstosay, this political gift to the opposition during the country’s federal election campaign was hardly palmed away, though opposition leader Kevin Rudd had to admit that his own team also had its paws in the cookie jar.

In another development, the Sydney Morning Herald ran a juicy storyline dangled by internet security outfit SurfControl claiming that the estimated cost to Australian business of employees using Facebook is in the region of AU$5bn.

Ouch, if accurate. But does it matter?

The answer, surely, is yes, though the important costs are not time-related but principally about reputation.

After all, birthdays are routinely celebrated and bosses disparaged both inside the office (the so-called ‘water cooler effect’) and outside it. Online social networks are merely another channel for sharing this information, albeit faster and more broadly.

So should organisations encourage, limit or ban employee access to Facebook and other social networks? Should staff be allowed to edit Wikipedia?

I’m not convinced they have a choice.

Goldman Sachs (not a client of ours, to the best of my knowledge) is one of a number of firms that have reputedly banned their employees from accessing Facebook. But a quick search reveals nearly 3,000 GS staff on its network page (ie. using their GS email addresses to enter the platform) and over 100 groups, including its New York and London offices.

Governments and companies have to accept that the lines between people’s professional and personal lives is going to get even more blurred, and that information will continue to become ever more free.

So what can they do?

For one, companies must look to engage their people much more deeply than ever before, and win their trust and loyalty (hint: social media provides them a new and powerful tool to help do this).

Second, accept that your staff will go and play with Facebook, Twitter and Wikipedia. Why shouldn’t they ask people for tips on the best delicatassen on the local newspaper discussion board, or respond to a post on an obscure blog that is plainly incorrect?

But also make sure that they clearly understand the consequences of their actions. Revealing confidential information, something about their boss or someone in the industry that could be construed as libellous, or making clearly non-factual updates to Wikipedia about their employer or its competitors, is potentially damaging to the company’s reputation.

More fundamentally, it may be time to have a good think about your company culture. Getting people aligned behind your brand and its values has been shown to increase performance. And it also improves reputation, the ultimate bottom line.

Tomorrow I fly to spend a week in Australia talking social media with a bunch of local companies.

I can’t wait - its been a long while since I’ve been down under, where in a misspent youth I spent a few months picking fruit and hitch-hiking goggle-eyed through its huge expanses of open space. Email had yet to go anywhere near mainstream and the web didn’t exist so the only way to contact home was via cheap, dog-eared postcards or short, expensive phone calls, preferably of the collect variety.

Clearly, much has changed on the communications front, though not as much as web 2.0-ers might wish. A debate on why blogging has failed to ignite in Australia is swirling, with the finger pointed at everything from the lack of a nationwide high speed broadband network and a risk-averse business culture to an outdoors lifestyle.

On the surface, few organisations appear to be using social media. (An exception is local telecoms company Telstra, which has been deloying blogs and other social media in a very public grassroots-oriented campaign aimed at building support for its plans to lay down those much needed fibre-optics.)

But all is not gloom. As in many countries, social networks are driving traffic, with Facebook surging (even if MySpace and Bebo are static) and according to the 2007 Future of Media Report (pdf), Australian YouTube usage increased some 239% in the year to May 2007.

Like elsewhere in Asia, companies seem to be grappling with questions like where to start and how to measure success. It’s going to be fascinating finding out more about their issues and concerns in their own backyard.

Yesterday I attended a conference on PR 2.0 in Singapore where the issue of the local culture of citizen journalism and blogging was touched upon.

Citizen journalism as it is known in the west (think individuals such as Jeff Jarvis or collaborative platforms/channels such as OhMyNews or NowPublic) would on the surface rub against the grain of Singapore’s tighly controlled political and media environment.

There are many bloggers in Singapore, though the great bulk of it is personal and conducted on social networks such as Friendster. And high visibility bloggers such as Xiaxue and Sparklette (who told us happily yesterday about sponsorship deals she has been inking with LG and others) are principally about life-style and entertainment rather than politics, society or business.

Nonetheless, Singapore does boast its own interesting stab at citizen journalism in STOMP (or Straits Times Online Mobile Print), which, among other things, encourages locals to tell stories about their community by SMS or MMS-ing in video, photos or plain text. Interestingly, despite contributors not having to reveal their identities on the site, it is video that is gaining most traction (perhaps because Singaporeans appear bashful about voicing their feelings and observations in print, reckons STOMP editor Jennifer Lewis).

By all accounts, STOMP has been a real success, reporting some 300,000+ users a month and giving the venerable Straits Times access to the valuable youth market. But, being Singapore, all is not quite as it seems. You won’t see much there to worry the government, for instance - all contributions are filtered before being uploaded.

On the other hand, the government does appear to be inching its way towards some kind of online engagement with its citizens. This week, it was quietly announced through a tender that five unnamed government agencies would be testing the waters by building online communities comprising blogs, podcasts, photo-sharing, polls etc intended to ‘increase [a] sense of belonging’ and bonding between Singaporeans and their government, and for the government to better understand its citizens’ needs.

If the government is genuine about wanting to engage and listen to its people, this project can only work if senior officials and their political masters are personally involved, prepared for real debate, and committed over the long-term, and that citizens are truly encouraged to voice their opinions and given the sense that they can make a difference.

It will be fascinating to see how this pans out.

A newly published study argues that blogs are playing a big role in shaping foreign journalists’ coverage of China. Thanks to Will Moss for the tip.

According to the report’s author, Rebecca Mckinnon, blogs are especially important to China hacks as the China ’story’ is not dictated by any one dominant issue, but rather requires detailed understanding across a range of themes, each of which demand specialist insight and where information and where on the record quotes, formal or informal, can be tricky to gather.

MacKinnon, a former CNN bureau chief in China, further notes that blogs are now a standard part of most journalists’ regular reading on the country with some 90% , but that they are evaluated individually according to the author’s track record and reputation.

Two blogs that score particularly highly are EastSouthWestNorth by Hong Kong-based researcher Roland Soong and Danwei from Beijing-based consultant Jeremy Goldkorn. Both set out to shed light on China, collating, (sometimes) translating and analysing latest developments in Chinese news and media and technology respectively.

Unsurprisingly, blogs emerge as the favoured online source for emerging stories, analysis and expert opinion, reflecting the fact that blogging outside of social networks has taken on a role similar to that in the west ie. a platform for personal opinion and professional advancement (if not, yet, for company communication), though in China’s case, it has also been subject to some well-documented nationalistic flag-waving (eg. Starbucks in the Forbidden City).

Meantime, discussion boards, which remain highly popular perhaps in part thanks to their anonymity, in part due to the sheer range of topics and numbers of participants, are considered useful for guaging public opinion.

With more of China’s 140m+ internet users going to the net for news and information (source: CNNIC 2007 Statistical Report - pdf) than receiving it on TV or print, organisations doing business in China would do well to keep an eye on the internet as a whole ie. both blogs and boards - for the latter are usually the source of stories about products, the former where these stories are shaped and promoted.

Last weekend Hong Kong celebrated 10 years of freedom. Chinese President Hu Jintao made an appearance, a speech and played some ping-pong. Meantime, demonstrators and the foreign media called for democracy.

Outside the mainstream media, cursory analysis of the blogosphere appears to show comparatively little interest (for which read enthusiasm?) in the celebrations.

From a technology perspective, this might seem surprising - Hong Kong has amongst the highest broadband and mobile phone penetration levels in the world. It boasts a free press and no discernable government online intervention. Yet, unlike across the border in China, in Hong Kong, a vigorous indigenous online culture appears not to have taken root.

Blogging, for instance, while popular on social networks such as Xanga, is limited to writing diaries and uploading photos. Political blogs or citizen journalism are almost non-existent (with the exception of the ongoing campaign against the demolition of the Star Ferry’s Queen’s Pier terminal in HK harbour, where online pressure groups have used the internet to mobilise opinion).

A saturated media environment may be one reason for the apparent lack of interest in digital communication. More fundamential may be the local custom of frequently visiting families and friends, easy to do in a small area. The latter may also help explain why businesses in HK pay little attention to online marketing - being around the corner, they are confident that locals will visit in person.

What then are the marketing opportunities?

Relevant, timely location-based mobile marketing may be one answer. Providing content in formats that are sufficiently brief and easily portable may be another, as the South China Morning Post has discovered through the success of its SCMP Today podcasts.

High levels of broadband technology penetration = massive generation of user-generated content = bona fide digital culture in which the consumer has succeeded in wrestling control and organisations had better engage online or become irrelevant. Or so goes the typical web 2.0 PR mantra.

Tell that to the South Koreans. On the one hand the country is the undisputed global broadband leader, with almost 90% domestic broadband penetration and 86% of South Koreans owning a mobile phone and some 51% of Koreans estimated to be creating online content. Then there’s CyWorld, with 2 in 3 South Koreans (and a staggering - if true - 96% of teens) in possession of a CyWorld ‘mini-hompy’ or homepage.

Needlesstosay, there’s plenty of innovation around using social networks and mobile phones for marketing purposes. But, with one or two high profile exceptions, a quick scan of just about any large corporate website reveals Korean companies in the digital doldrums. Once you’ve managed to avoid the ever-present CEO and corporate video extolling the glories of the company, the hunt begins for something useful, engaging or revealing. Instead you get mired in corporate-speak, platitudes and terrible translation.

Here’s a delightful example: Wherever you find [company name], you will see your beautiful dreams.

Or another: We share the same dream of finding the road to happiness and a future full of hope. [Company name] is with you every step of the way

Do people really buy this? And how does it go down in the foreign markets which many Korean companies are actively targeting. At root, the issue is one of company cultures that stifle innovation and where the smallest decisions are shunted to the top. Control is all. Going global seems to be having little effect in many instances - their communications remain formulaic, prosaic and occasionally just plain weird.

New technologies provide a real opportunity for companies to engage people, build loyalty and create evangelists through open, direct communication. Will the chaebols take the plunge?

If you believe the international business press, you could be forgiven for thinking that there’s only one search engine game in town - Google. Internet portals such as Yahoo! and MSN are billed as mere also-rans.

Looked at from an Asian perspective, things look different. For while Google has solidified its lead in most English-language markets (in India it has a 70% share of the search market, and it tops traffic rankings in Australia and Singapore), in others it has its work cut out.

Yahoo! is used by almost 80% of Japanese internet users every month, with 65% using its search engine, and also leads in Hong Kong. China’s Baidu accounts for 60%+ of search marketing expenditure while in South Korea Naver attracts some 70% of search dollars.

Like Yahoo!, Baidu and Naver offer a host of community activities in addition to web search, including blogging and discussion boards. Naver’s killer app is its Knowledge iN search engine (think Yahoo! Answers); with over 60m questions submitted, it has help fill a glaring hole on the Korean internet - a dearth of local language content. Naver now has over 26m registered users, and over 50%+ of South Koreans have set Naver.com as their default homepage.

In China, MP3 search accounts for over 20% of Baidu’s traffic. Other popular services include Baidu Zhidao, its social search tool, and Baidu Baike, a local language wiki encyclopedia, which now boasts nearly 750,000 entries. Baidu’s success comes despite Google’s Chinese language search capability being considered the superior and Adwords the more effective marketing system.

The lesson? That technology by itself won’t deliver the users (and the consequent marketing money) and that it pays to understand the needs of local users, for whom communication and networking are key activities online.

In east Asia, a search offering with a significant community component works best. The portal is alive and kicking.